ThingsWeTreasureTWT: Precious Metals Weekly Market Report

## Market Activities and Mining Developments | July 19-26, 2025

The precious metals complex continues to demonstrate remarkable resilience and growth momentum as we move through the second half of 2025, with all three major metals posting exceptional year-to-date performance despite experiencing some consolidation over the past seven days. This week has been marked by significant mining production updates, continued institutional demand, and evolving market dynamics that are reshaping the precious metals landscape.

## **Gold Market: Consolidation at Historic Levels**

Gold has entered a consolidation phase around the $3,269 per ounce level, following its extraordinary run that saw the metal touch an all-time high of $3,499 in April 2025. The current sideways movement represents a healthy technical correction after gold's stunning 26% gain in the first half of the year, making it the top-performing asset class across all categories.

**Technical Analysis and Market Position**

The consolidation pattern that began in mid-April has now extended for approximately three months, with market analysts suggesting another 1.5-2 months of sideways movement before a definitive resolution. Key technical levels being monitored include the 50-day moving average and the critical $3,150-3,170 support zone, which could determine the metal's next directional move.

**Mining Production Developments**

Global gold mine production is projected to reach an all-time high in 2025, driven primarily by new mine openings and existing facility expansions that are outpacing mine closures. The CRU Group forecasts approximately 1.5% increase in global mine production to around 88.6 million ounces, providing additional supply to meet the unprecedented demand from central banks and institutional investors.

**Major Producer Performance**

Newmont Mining, the world's largest gold producer, reported robust Q2 2025 results with adjusted earnings of $1.43 per share, significantly beating the $1.18 consensus estimate. The company achieved this despite an 8% decline in production to 1.48 million ounces, as soaring gold prices averaged $3,220 per ounce during the quarter—representing a 12% quarter-over-quarter increase and a remarkable 40% year-over-year gain.

## **Silver Market: Structural Deficits Drive Long-Term Bullish Outlook**

Silver continues to demonstrate exceptional strength, with prices near $39.36 per ounce and reaching a high of $39.29 on July 23, 2025—levels not seen in over a decade. The white metal has posted a compelling gain from its January 2025 low of $28.97 to current levels around $39.36, representing a remarkable 36% year-to-date performance, though it has experienced some profit-taking pressure over the past week as investors lock in gains from the extraordinary rally.

**Supply-Demand Fundamentals**

The silver market faces a critical structural challenge that continues to support higher prices. Global silver production is expected to increase marginally by only 1.9% to 835.0 million ounces in 2025, while industrial demand continues to surge across multiple sectors including renewable energy, electronics, and automotive applications. This structural deficit creates an environment highly conducive to price spikes, though secondary supply from recycling has helped moderate some of the supply pressure.

**Industrial Demand Drivers**

Silver's dual role as both a precious metal and critical industrial commodity continues to provide fundamental support. The ongoing energy transition, increased electric vehicle production, and expanding solar panel manufacturing are creating sustained industrial demand that competes directly with investment demand for available supply.

**Production Updates**

Recent mining production results highlight the sector's mixed performance. Aya Gold & Silver reported Q2 2025 production of 1.04 million ounces of silver at its Zgounder Silver Mine in Morocco, demonstrating the continued operational focus on maximizing output during this period of elevated prices.

## **Platinum Market: The Breakout Star of 2025**

Platinum has emerged as the standout performer in the precious metals complex, with an extraordinary surge of nearly 50% in the first half of 2025. After years of range-bound trading and underperformance relative to gold and silver, platinum has finally broken out in spectacular fashion, capturing investor attention and institutional flows.

**Market Dynamics and Performance**

The platinum rally represents a fundamental shift in market dynamics, with the metal benefiting from both supply constraints and evolving demand patterns. Industrial applications, particularly in the automotive sector and emerging hydrogen economy, are creating new demand streams while traditional jewelry demand remains steady.

**Supply Side Considerations**

Platinum mining operations continue to face operational challenges, particularly in South Africa, which dominates global production. The combination of aging infrastructure, power supply issues, and labor considerations has constrained production growth, contributing to tighter market conditions that support higher prices.

## **Central Bank Demand and Institutional Flows**

The precious metals market continues to benefit from unprecedented central bank buying activity. Central banks purchased a record 244 tonnes of gold in recent quarters, as monetary authorities worldwide seek to diversify their reserves away from traditional currency holdings amid ongoing economic uncertainty and geopolitical tensions.

**Monetary Policy Implications**

The ongoing rate cuts by major central banks are expected to continue supporting precious metals prices throughout 2025. Lower interest rates reduce the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets like gold and silver, while simultaneously raising concerns about currency debasement and inflation—traditional catalysts for precious metals investment.

**Geopolitical Factors**

Persistent geopolitical tensions and trade uncertainties continue to support safe-haven demand for precious metals. The combination of ongoing conflicts, trade policy uncertainties, and concerns about global economic stability has maintained elevated risk premiums across the precious metals complex.

## **Investment Outlook and Market Forecasts**

Looking forward, the precious metals sector appears well-positioned for continued strength, though short-term consolidation periods are expected as markets digest the significant advances already achieved this year. AI-powered price forecasting models suggest significant upside potential, with ChatGPT-4 Turbo projecting silver could reach between $46 and $56 per ounce by the end of 2025, potentially eclipsing the all-time high of $49.45 reached in January 1980.

**Technical Patterns and Historical Parallels**

Market analysts note that current precious metals technical patterns bear striking resemblance to the 1970s bull market, suggesting the potential for further substantial gains. The combination of monetary policy accommodation, currency concerns, and structural supply-demand imbalances creates a macro environment similar to previous major precious metals bull markets.

**Risk Factors and Considerations**

Despite the bullish outlook, investors should remain cognizant of potential headwinds including unexpected monetary policy tightening, resolution of geopolitical tensions, or significant increases in mining production. The recent consolidation in gold and profit-taking in silver demonstrate that even in bull markets, volatility and corrections are normal occurrences.

## **Mining Sector Performance and Production Outlook**

The precious metals mining sector has benefited significantly from higher commodity prices, with many companies reporting improved margins and enhanced profitability despite production challenges. The sector's ability to increase production organically through existing operations and new project development will be crucial in meeting growing global demand.

**Exploration and Development Activity**

Higher precious metals prices have incentivized increased exploration activity and accelerated development of previously marginal projects. This increased activity is expected to contribute to production growth over the medium term, though the lead times for new mining projects mean meaningful supply increases may not materialize for several years.

**Operational Efficiency Focus**

Mining companies are increasingly focusing on operational efficiency improvements and technology adoption to maximize output from existing operations. Advanced extraction techniques, automation, and improved processing methods are helping companies increase production while managing cost pressures.

## **Conclusion: A Market in Transition**

The precious metals market finds itself at a historic inflection point in July 2025, with all three major metals—gold, silver, and platinum—having posted exceptional performance in the first half of the year. While short-term consolidation and profit-taking are natural components of any sustained bull market, the fundamental drivers supporting precious metals remain robust.

The combination of central bank demand, monetary policy accommodation, geopolitical uncertainty, and structural supply-demand imbalances suggests the precious metals complex is well-positioned for continued strength. However, investors should prepare for periodic volatility and consolidation phases as markets digest gains and reassess valuations.

For ThingsWeTreasureTWT clients and precious metals investors, the current environment presents both opportunities and considerations. The exceptional performance of 2025 has validated the portfolio diversification benefits of precious metals allocation, while also creating new considerations around position sizing and profit-taking strategies.

As we move through the remainder of 2025, the precious metals market appears poised to continue its role as both a store of value and a hedge against monetary and economic uncertainty, making it an essential component of any well-diversified investment portfolio.